Question:
Libyan terrorists infiltrate throughout Europe while passport-checking computers are offline. Idea germinated by press reports about 1 Jan 99 problems in Sweden. Use of explosives during the celebrations on December 31. Drug peddling could be on increase. The arrest of dissidents with a tenuous background in IT. The Neo-nazi movement in Southern Cone countries of South America strikes Jews, saying Y2K is a Jewish plot for financial world control. In Russia: robbing houses, violence on streets. Security forces round up opposition leaders at night and jail them–first silence on the event prevails, then after the word gets out government announces that a group of conspirators has been identified, then later they announce that they have been jailed but no names are given, then even later they are brought to trial for treason. If systems to confirm identity are down, occasions of identity theft could rise. These are just a few possible Y2K-related scenarios suggested at the Brainstorming Session on Malevolent Acts session conducted by the U.S. Naval War College Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project. http://www.geocities.com/area51/vault/1157/nwc-y2k.htm In my search to find the single most comprehensive government/military study of Y2K implications, I was disappointed to find a lot of sugar-coating of the issues. Not so with this effort by the U.S. Naval War College which commenced in December of 1998. I am surprised that so little has been mentioned of it in the ngs. I’ll try to post a few excerpts from the study to this thread over the next few days. If you haven’t done so already, check it out. You are sure to find something to quote.
Response:
– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – U.S. Naval War College Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project. http://www.geocities.com/area51/vault/1157/nwc-y2k.htm In my search to find the single most comprehensive government/military study of Y2K implications, I was disappointed to find a lot of sugar-coating of the issues. Not so with this effort by the U.S. Naval War College which commenced in December of 1998. I am surprised that so little has been mentioned of it in the ngs. I’ll try to post a few excerpts from the study to this thread over the next few days. If you haven’t done so already, check it out. You are sure to find something to quote.
Okay, here are some thoughts on Y2K in **Europe** + **Russia** from the "You Make the Call – Region by Region" session: Lots of islanding. France regrets its laizez faire attitude. Germany is big trouble. Russia declares bankruptcy. Nuclear power plants in trouble. Energy not available to close them down. Multiple meltdowns. Continued and severe economic depression of the former Soviet states. Lots of tensions in the EU as countries try to get off the grid. Russia: put your dollars on Lebed. He may come in as the white knight after increased Y2K disaster. Issue of weather patterns (i.e., intense winter) may be exacerbating factor to watch for as other events unfold. Russia: Mix of bad times, continuing search for religious identity in wake of Soviet collapse, and unceasing media hype from West about apocalyptic Christian groups leads to emergence of large messianic movement in Russia. Some pressure on integrity of monetary union as a result of Y2K strains. But European integration may actually be strengthened long term because countries will have to share information and help each other get out of this hole. Europe may be rather affected to worse degree than the US economically, but will be much more resilient politically and socially. Euro crashes on the rocks of Y2K. Possible strains as a result of increased immigrant flow from Eastern Europe and North Africa where social effects of Y2K may be more perilous. The UK, the Netherlands, and Sweden will do the best. The millennial celebrations planned in Britain will be seen to have been a major error in judgment. The public will mobilize well to address hardships. Those countries that have been in denial concerning the seriousness of Y2K will realize that they have made a serious misjudgment. There may well be technological disasters that will make infrastructure disruptions all the more difficult to address. In the former Eastern bloc countries, where there has been very little consciousness of Y2K and minor efforts to assess and remediate the problem, there has also been little or no preparation of the public and with no steps taken to ready the public to get through the difficulties faced owing to severe infrastructure disruptions. The malfunctioning of nuclear power plants, nuclear weapons systems (particularly the software programs that are involved with targeting and with tracking of incoming missiles), and biological and chemical warfare storage sites could have caused damage locally and globally. Perhaps surprisingly, if there is massive economic disruption, the countries most likely to see political extremism could well be the "core" of Germany, France and Benelux rather than the "periphery" of Italy, Spain, etc. If there was big disruption, then there would likely be a tilt to the right throughout Europe, since the center-left is now in charge in all but two of the 15 EU countries. Tourism is a risk since the winter months in Europe and the US are the major travel times, especially to East Africa and West Africa. Russia: There is not high probability that on the national scale there will be good understanding and care of the coming Y2K events. The information and concerns in question will circulate only in limited circles of computer professionals and may be some criminal and Mafia groups who will plan to get the advantage of the event. A large scale of inflation is expected in Russia during this year, which will lead to a great instability in economic, political and psychological respects. At the end of 1999 there will be election to Duma and in the middle of 2000 year, the election of the President. All official structures will be immersed into political games and struggle, and main national resources (money, mass media and so on) will be used for the purpose of different parties and leaders. Population will loose trust to the official power even more, there will be strikes, starvation, grief because of the lack of food, order, responsible officials. The rumors about the (possible) disaster will increase by the end of 1999, and will get unpredictable form and scale. The chaos in the beginning of 2000 could cost lives and social and governmental crises. To prevent catastrophe it is very crucial to activate attention of proper officials in Russia from outside (USA?).
Response:
http://www.geocities.com/area51/vault/1157/nwc-y2k.htm I’ll try to post a few excerpts from the study to this thread over the next few days. If you haven’t done so already, check it out. You are sure to find something to quote.
How about some of these from the brainstorming session: "’Headlines in History’ for Y2K as Widespread and Sustained Event" ? Of course, these are all hypothetical, but I think we can all agree that there is more to Y2K than "No problem – I have a Mac." I do a lot of talking to "the man on the street" and unfortunately this is about the level of public Y2K perception, in my opinion. Group Calling Itself "The Number of the Beast" Claims Credit for Electricity Outtages Throughout Peru, Declaring "End is Near" Widespread Y2K Panic Leads to Looting and Turf Wars; Fearing Race Riots, Government Calls in Troops to Keep Order Fearful Patients Ask Docs for "Y2K Supplies" of Sensitive Meds; Run on Pharmacies Seen Brazil’s President Cancels Carnival in March 2000 [Fear of rioting in the streets after prolonged power outages spur the leadership to cancel the nation's most important holiday. Rioting erupts because of the cancellation.] Times Square Cancels New Year’s Plans; But Many Plan to Come Anyway; Disorder Feared Millenium Event Provides Pretext For Attack in Former Soviet Republic [Hostility spreads to other regions; fascism emerges as popular solution to Y2K "Time of Troubles."] Fourth Quarter 1999 Bankruptcies In US Hit Record Levels: Small And Medium Enterprises Especially Hard Hit Nightmares on Rise? Therapists Claim Y2K to Blame [Studies indicate that fear goes substantially deeper than expected. Many traumatic memories resurface. Links between earlier fears of nuclear explosion and newer ones of informational implosion found.] Financial Systems Closed Down [Failure of an embedded switch somewhere in the computer/communication system of CHIPS, the international payments clearing system, had forced the system to close down, bringing international trade in goods and services to a halt. Word processing software seen a culprit in news editing system. "This is not operator error," says one insider. Run on banks exceeds expectations. Government troops called out to quell real-world re-run of "It's a Wonderful Life."] The Downfall of Home Computers [Someone forgot to think about the small guy as the computer industry was nailed with millions of lawsuits over their ineffective effort to advise in advance home PC users of the impacts of the Y2K bug.] Citizens Hunker Down as if for Hurricane, Y2K Seen as "Cyber Storm of Millennium" Widespread Failures of Essential Services Cause Panic [Many companies that reported themselves to be "Y2K compliant" were not. "I don't understand it" reports one CEO.] Bread, Fuel, Water Sales Soar [But supplies rapidly exhausted as long queues form at retail outlets.] Millennial Travelers Defy Y2K Taboo [Defying widespread fears that traffic control would break down at the millennium, tens of thousands of tourists experience multiple date crossings by going west of the date line to be first to experience the new millennium and then flying east of the date line to be the last to live in the old millennium.] "This is not a Strike" The Presidents of the ILA and ILWU, the East and West Coast longshoremen unions, have announced that membership will no report for work on the eve of the millennium until all computer systems and waterfront equipment are certified Y2K compliant by Ocean Terminal Operators. Both Presidents agree that a single injury, or worse, due to noncompliance would be one too many. While the union claims that this is a safety issue, terminal operators see this as a contract negotiation ploy.] Auto Parts Vendors Never Got Ready For Y2K [Tightly integrated supply system fails causing complete shutdown. Auto theft flourishes near auto plants; "parts cannibalism" is rampant. Junkyard networking exacts premium price for crucial parts.] Japan Refuses US Help With Y2K Financial Disaster: Markets Predicted to Continuing Failing Without Outside Assistance [Whole range of diplomatic transformations, some good (e.g., new alliances) and some bad (breakdown of alliances).] Airlines Grounded [Widespread outtages in navigation and communications systems due to Y2K failures have grounded worldwide air travel. As a result, people, high priority mail and air freight are not moving, checks are not clearing, just-in-time systems are "not." General economic slowdown with catastrophic spots is developing.] Satellite Outtage Triggers Global Economic Disruptions [Satellite failures could provide the impetus for economic systems to be toppled. Systems which go down for x days may cause enough interruption to capital flow to effect calamity in some economies. These failures could trigger (cascade effect) other economic failures. Further, satellite system vulnerabilities could provide the window of opportunity for hungry countries (power, resources, etc.) to take advantage of weaker neighbors, although this window of vulnerability may be quite small due to satellite self-correcting calculations.] International Communications Failures Overwhelm Surviving Telecom Systems; Even President’s Calls Fail to Get Through Iraq Blames Widespread Y2K Problems on U.S. Info Warfare Conspiracy [Widespread failures of power distribution and telecommunication networks in Iraq are being blamed on the U.S. Anti-U.S. rioting in the streets of Baghdad and threats of retaliation cause U.S. officials to begin evacuation of U.S. citizens in region.] Failures Cascade Throughout East Asian Manufacturers; Just-in-Time Systems Fail [Industries still struggling to recover from the crisis of 1997-98, see further extended period of gloom, unemployment, and social dislocations.] http://geocities.com/area51/vault/1157/y2k.htm
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